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A peer-reviewed study tracking gray whales from 2018–2025 found that nearly 18% of 114 individually identified eastern North Pacific gray whales that entered San Francisco Bay later died there, according to research published in Frontiers in Marine Science and reported in April 2026.
Researchers built photo-identification profiles from boat surveys, opportunistic sightings and citizen photos and matched 21 live identifications to carcasses recovered in and around the bay; at least 40% of those carcasses showed lethal injuries consistent with ship strikes.
The authors and other experts say the confirmed 18% mortality is a conservative minimum because many carcasses go unrecovered or decompose.
The deaths arrive amid a broader population decline and a recent NOAA unusual mortality event that highlighted malnutrition as a primary driver.
Scientists suggest whales may be entering the bay searching for prey displaced by warming oceans, exposing them to heavy commercial and ferry traffic.
Recent voluntary speed-reduction requests have been non-binding; researchers and conservationists are urging stronger monitoring, mandatory slow-speed zones and other measures to reduce vessel strikes and help a population at historic lows.





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