Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on April 17 that a swift end to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could keep the door open for interest-rate cuts later in 2026, but a prolonged war — particularly one that constrains the Strait of Hormuz — would likely keep inflation elevated and force the Fed to hold policy rates. Speaking at Auburn University ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting blackout, Waller outlined two scenarios: one in which energy markets reopen and underlying inflation drifts toward the Fed’s 2% goal, and another where sustained high energy prices embed broader inflationary pressures across goods and services. He estimated March personal consumption expenditures inflation near 3.5% and warned that sequential shocks (tariffs followed by an energy shock) complicate policymakers’ ability to look through transitory spikes. Waller also noted that lower net immigration and an aging population have reduced the level of job creation needed to keep unemployment steady, and he downplayed systemic risks from private credit. Markets reacted to the conflict with higher oil and gasoline prices and shifted expectations on the timing of Fed easing.

The U.S. government on Monday, April 20, 2026, launched a new online portal — the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) — allowing importers and licensed customs brokers to claim refunds for tariffs the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional. The tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), totalled about $166 billion on some 53 million shipments. CBP says the initial phase covers roughly $127 billion of eligible refunds and that more than 56,000 importers had registered for electronic payments in mid‑April. Claims must be filed through the ACE Secure Data Portal with ACH enrollment; approved refunds are expected to be issued within about 60–90 days. CBP will process payouts in phases and has warned some complex cases and about $2.9 billion in deposits will require manual handling. Businesses and customs brokers warn of potential technical glitches, strict formatting and documentation rules, and lingering legal uncertainty from possible government appeals. Importers, not end consumers, are the direct refund recipients, though class actions seek to force downstream refunds.

Tata Trusts said trustees of the Bai Hirabai Jamsetji Tata Navsari Charitable Institution met on April 17 and will seek to amend restrictive clauses in the trust deed that bar non-Zoroastrians from serving as trustees. The move follows a challenge by former trustee Mehli Mistry to the appointments of Venu Srinivasan and Vijay Singh, who were accused of not meeting faith and residency criteria; Srinivasan later stepped down, saying he did so at the request of Tata Trusts. The trustees said the 1916 codicil to Sir Ratan Tata’s will did not impose religious restrictions, but a 1923 trust deed contained clauses that did. Tata Trusts noted non-Zoroastrians have been appointed since 2000 based on a legal opinion and pledged to pursue proceedings before the appropriate authority — which could include the Maharashtra Charity Commissioner or the courts — to correct anomalies and align the deed with the group’s inclusive philanthropic values. The trustees also reiterated confidence in CEO Siddharth Sharma amid scrutiny over his role in discussions with the contested appointees.

Seven weeks of war in West Asia and a recent ceasefire have not erased mounting economic damage, raising renewed fears of global stagflation, analysts and policymakers warned on April 19, 2026. Early April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) and other business surveys due later this week — with key readings from Germany, France, the euro zone and the UK expected to weaken and US indicators seen broadly steady — will be watched for signs growth and inflation are both deteriorating. The IMF cautioned officials the shock could tip the world toward a near-recession even if hostilities subside, and S&P Global’s Chris Williamson flagged the stagflation risk. Energy-driven price pressures from higher oil and gasoline costs have already pushed up headline inflation in countries such as Canada and are likely to show through in upcoming national data. Central banks face a difficult policy mix with interest-rate decisions slated in a range of economies (including Turkey, Indonesia and parts of Asia) and major policymakers — including ECB economists — saying they will weigh fresh survey evidence as they set policy. The coming data flow will be critical in determining whether transitory price shocks morph into a more persistent global growth–inflation dilemma.

Nearly 50 days into the conflict with Iran, analysts and Reuters calculations say more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, representing roughly $50 billion in lost revenues at about $100 a barrel. The disruption — described as the largest energy supply shock in modern history — has seen Gulf Arab producers lose about 8 million barrels per day in March and production outages reach roughly 12 million bpd since late March. Jet fuel exports from six Gulf states fell from about 19.6 million barrels in February to 4.1 million for March and April. Global onshore crude inventories have drawn down by about 45 million barrels in April. Industry analysts warn heavier fields in Kuwait and Iraq may need four to five months to stabilise and that damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex could take years to fully repair. Iranian officials said the Strait of Hormuz remained open after a Lebanon ceasefire accord, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected a deal to end the war “soon.” Sources include Kpler, Wood Mackenzie and Reuters.

A delegation of around a dozen Indian officials will meet US counterparts in Washington from April 20-22, 2026 to resume talks on the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement (BTA). India’s chief negotiator, Darpan Jain, will lead a team that includes officers from customs and the external affairs ministry. The talks follow a Feb. 7 framework text under which the US had agreed to cut Indian tariffs to 18% from as high as 50% and remove a 25% tariff applied to purchases of Russian oil. The US Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 ruling against earlier reciprocal tariffs and the subsequent US decision to impose a 10% tariff on all countries for 150 days (from Feb. 24) have altered the landscape, prompting both sides to consider recalibration and redrafting of the draft pact. The agenda is also expected to address two Section 301 investigations opened by the US Trade Representative, which India has rejected and asked to terminate. Under earlier understandings India had offered wide tariff reductions and signalled purchases of about $500 billion in US energy, aerospace and technology goods over five years.