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United Airlines on April 21, 2026 warned that a surge in jet fuel prices driven by conflict in the Middle East will depress near-term profits, forecasting second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.00 to $2.00 per share and full-year adjusted EPS of $7.00 to $11.00.
The midpoint of the Q2 range, $1.50, is well below analysts’ $2.08 estimate; the full-year midpoint is also below consensus.
United said it expects Gulf Coast jet fuel to average about $4.30 per gallon in Q2 and that it will recover only 40%–50% of the fuel cost increase through fares and other revenue measures in Q2, improving to 70%–80% in Q3 and 85%–100% by Q4.
The carrier reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.19 and revenue of $14.6 billion, with fuel expense up $340 million year-on-year.
United trimmed its prior 2026 guidance (previously $12–$14) and signalled restrained capacity, with H2 capacity flat to up 2%, while industry peers such as Delta and Alaska have already pulled or pared growth amid the same fuel shock.








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