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Goldman Sachs said on April 24 that about 14.5 million barrels per day of Gulf crude — roughly 57% of pre‑conflict supply — was offline in April as the U.S.-Iran war and related maritime disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sharply curtailed shipments.
The bank and other forecasters estimate a partial recovery is possible if the strait is safely and sustainably reopened: around 70% of lost output could return within three months and roughly 88% within six months.
But recovery will be constrained by logistics and well performance.
Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has fallen by about 130 million barrels (roughly 50%), limiting how quickly producers can move crude once exports resume.
Prolonged shut‑ins risk eroding flow rates in lower‑pressure reservoirs and may require workovers, with Iran and Iraq facing greater recovery challenges than Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have more spare capacity.
The disruption has tightened markets and pushed Brent above $100 a barrel (near $106), reflecting rising near‑term supply risk and elevated price volatility.







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