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From May 5-7, reports that the United States and Iran are close to a one-page memorandum to end their Gulf war sent shockwaves through energy and financial markets.
Mediators in Pakistan and U.S. and Iranian sources said Tehran was reviewing a U.S. proposal; Iranian ministers also engaged China in diplomacy ahead of a planned U.S.-China summit.
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly said Iran âwant[s] to make a dealâ and paused a short-lived naval operation dubbed âProject Freedomâ intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The prospect of a ceasefire and eventual resumption of Gulf shipping pushed global equities to fresh highs â the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose sharply while AI-driven rallies and strong chip earnings (AMD jumped ~18.6%) amplified gains â and sent oil tumbling from recent peaks.
Brent briefly fell below $100 a barrel and traded around $101; U.S. WTI traded in the mid-$90s before partial rebounds.
Officials warned that even if a framework is agreed, shipping and supply normalization could take weeks, and Tehran and regional actors have voiced caveats, leaving outcomes uncertain.
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A deep split between Iranâs civilian government and the IRGC, plus reports of tolling and impersonation scams, means declarations of reopening are fragile. Commercial shipping and insurers remain wary, so any resumption of normal traffic is likely to be limited, conditional and slow.







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