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Britain could shed about 163,000 jobs in 2026 as the economic fallout from the Iran war pushes up energy and commodity costs, according to the Item Club’s regional outlook published in May 2026.
The independent forecaster expects UK employment to fall by 0.4%, with manufacturing- and construction-dependent regions such as South Wales (‑5,700) and the Humber (‑2,800) hit hardest.
Major cities' retail and hospitality sectors are also forecast to weaken, with projected job losses of 25,000 in London, 12,500 in Birmingham, 9,800 in Leeds and 6,200 in Glasgow.
The conflict has driven oil prices higher, contributing to inflationary pressures globally (including a rise in China’s producer prices) and prompting market moves: UK gilt yields and borrowing costs rose in early May and sterling fell against the dollar.
The Bank of England has warned unemployment could rise toward 5.6% under a downside scenario.
The government has signalled support measures for manufacturers and reiterated plans to cut business energy costs while pursuing clean power targets.






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