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A new Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analysis released on May 27–28, 2026, finds that U.S. stockpiles of key advanced weapons expended during the Iran war will take at least three years to replenish.
CSIS estimates more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched, alongside heavy use of Patriot interceptors (an estimated 1,060–1,430 fired) and 190–290 THAAD interceptors.
Slow production rates — historically averaging about 86 Tomahawks per year and limited annual interceptor outputs — and complex supply chains mean money alone cannot erase the gap quickly.
The report flags a “window of vulnerability” for a potential Western Pacific conflict, noting Chinese ambitions regarding Taiwan.
The findings mirror Pentagon acknowledgements that replenishment will take “months and years,” while the Trump administration has proposed a $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 and pressed industry to expand capacity.
Allies are already affected: Switzerland and other foreign military sales face delays.
CSIS says some munitions could be substituted but with trade-offs in range, platform risk, and cost.








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