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PARIS, June 3, 2026 — The OECD said the global economy faces a sharp downgrade if the Middle East conflict and associated Gulf energy disruptions persist.
In its June Economic Outlook the Paris-based body cut baseline global growth to 2.8% in 2026 (from 3.4% in 2025) with a rebound to 3.1% in 2027 if supplies broadly normalise.
But in a “prolonged disruption” scenario that stretches into 2027, growth could slump to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 — rates last seen in major crises.
Sustained energy shocks could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation in 2026 and 1.3 in 2027, prompting central banks to consider 50–75 basis point rate hikes.
The OECD flagged outsized pain for Asian energy importers and poorer economies, risks to AI and other energy‑intensive investment, higher unemployment, and possible recessions in some countries.







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