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Swedish researchers report that artificial intelligence trained on nationwide healthcare registry data can identify people at elevated risk of developing melanoma within five years.
The study, led by Sam Polesie at the University of Gothenburg with major analysis by Martin Gillstedt, analysed records for 6,036,186 adults resident in Sweden between 2005 and 2014; 38,582 (0.64%) developed melanoma within five years.
Models incorporating age, sex, diagnoses, medication history and socioeconomic variables distinguished future melanoma cases correctly in about 73% of instances, versus roughly 64% when using only age and sex.
By combining clinical and sociodemographic inputs, the team identified small high‑risk subgroups with an estimated ~33% probability of developing melanoma within five years.
The research, published in Acta Dermato‑Venereologica in April 2026, suggests selective, data‑driven screening could improve early detection and resource allocation.
Authors and funders caution further validation, policy discussion and safeguards are needed before routine clinical deployment.








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