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The U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast, published May 7-8 and powered by Tourism Economics, projects modest growth for the U.S. travel sector in 2026.
Inflation-adjusted total travel spending is expected to reach $1.37 trillion this year and climb to $1.42 trillion in 2027.
Domestic travel will drive the expansion, accounting for roughly 87% of spending; domestic leisure is forecast at $909 billion in 2026 and remains the only segment above pre-pandemic levels.
Business travel is projected to grow modestly to $319 billion (+0.7%) in 2026.
International inbound spending is expected to rebound slightly to $178 billion (+1.6%) with visitation rising about 3.4% to 70.6 million, supported in part by the FIFA World Cup, though full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2029.
The report flags downside risks including persistent inflation and energy prices, geopolitical instability, long visa wait times and negative perceptions of the U.S., and notes the slow inbound rebound widened the travel trade deficit to $72 billion in 2025.
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