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On Feb. 5, 2026 the Bank of England is widely expected to keep its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first decision of the year.
December’s consumer prices index unexpectedly rose to 3.4%, complicating the case for an immediate follow-up cut after four reductions in 2025 (from 4% to 3.75%). Money markets price a majority chance of no change and analysts predict a split vote, with several MPC members likely to favour a hold.
Policymakers are weighing cooling labour-market signals — slower wage growth and higher unemployment — against sticky inflation drivers such as transport and regulated charges.
Analysts differ on timing of future cuts: some see reductions from March or April and further easing by summer, while others expect a more cautious pace.
The decision occurs alongside data showing the UK construction sector remains in contraction (PMI below 50) and with the eurozone on a different path — ECB rates are at 2% and also expected to hold.
The outcome will shape mortgage costs, savings rates, sterling and gilt markets and frame BoE forward guidance at the post-decision press conference.
















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