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The Indian rupee staged a sharp rebound in early February after the US and India announced a trade deal that cut reciprocal US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. On Feb. 3 the currency rallied about 1.36% to 90.27 per dollar — its biggest one‑day gain since 2018 — as traders unwound short positions and foreign investors bought Indian equities.
In the sessions that followed (Feb. 4-5) gains were limited by heavy corporate dollar demand and increased exporter hedging, while forward premiums eased (one‑year implied yield near 2.39% and one‑month premiums at multi‑week lows). The Reserve Bank of India’s $10 billion three‑year buy/sell FX swap and a Monetary Policy Committee meeting are focal points for markets weighing likely intervention and rate guidance.
Banks and strategists are divided: Bank of America sees further strengthening to around 88.6–89 by end‑March, while others caution that RBI reserve and forward‑book management, capital flows and detailed terms of the trade deal will determine sustainability.






















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