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A new National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) analysis warns that cutting net migration to zero would make the UK economy 3.6% smaller by 2040 and worsen public finances by about £37 billion (roughly 0.8% of GDP). Under the zero‑net scenario the working‑age population would fall by around 2.5 million and the national population would stabilise at about 70 million by 2030 versus a projection of roughly 74 million by 2040.
NIESR says GDP per capita and average incomes could rise modestly (around 2%) as firms adopt more capital, but those gains would be outweighed by slower overall growth, lower tax receipts and rising borrowing unless offset by significant tax rises or spending cuts.
The report cites a sharp fall in net migration — to roughly 204,000 in the year to June 2025 from highs above 900,000 in 2023 — driven by tighter visa rules.
NIESR also updated its macro outlook: inflation is expected to fall below 2% in April 2026, two Bank rate cuts are forecast in 2026 (to 3.25%), and GDP growth is seen slowing to about 1.3%–1.1% through 2027–28.
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Business Matters Magazine RSS FeedCutting net migration to zero would shrink UK economy and worsen deficit, think tank warns























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