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China’s economy accelerated to 5.0% year‑on‑year growth in Q1 2026, beating forecasts and posting a sequential expansion of 1.3% as manufacturing and exports powered an early‑year rebound.
Industrial output rose 5.7% in March while retail sales lagged at 1.7%, underscoring weak domestic demand.
March export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% month‑on‑month (after a combined January‑February surge), though exports for the January‑March period were still up about 14.7% year‑on‑year.
Property investment remained a drag, falling double digits, and fixed‑asset investment growth softened.
Policymakers have front‑loaded fiscal support, boosting bond issuance and spending, while the central bank is expected to keep policy accommodative but cautious.
The outbreak of war in Iran has driven up energy and shipping costs, pushed factory‑gate prices out of deflation, and raised the risk that a protracted conflict will squeeze margins, slow global demand and hurt China’s export‑led recovery in coming quarters.








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