A study led by the University of Exeter in partnership with think‑tank Carbon Tracker, published 5 February 2026, warns that conventional economic models systematically understate the financial risks from accelerating climate change. Drawing on expert judgement from roughly 60–70 climate scientists across about a dozen countries, the analysis concludes that warming beyond 2°C would more likely produce cascading, structural and compounding shocks — through extreme weather, tipping points and simultaneous sectoral failures — than the gradual, GDP‑linked losses captured by standard models. The report highlights that commonly used metrics such as GDP can mask true societal costs (deaths, ill health, ecosystem loss) and warns that combinations of extreme events could trigger systemic disruption severe enough to threaten global financial stability. It urges regulators, central banks and investors to focus on extreme scenarios and systemic vulnerability, accelerate stress‑testing and precautionary measures, and to speed a move away from fossil‑fuel exposure rather than await ‘perfect’ models.

Shares of Vertex, Inc. (NASDAQ:VERX) tumbled to a 52-week low of $15.69 on Feb. 4, 2026, trading around $15.87 as heavy volume hit the stock and prices fell roughly 15% over two sessions. The move followed a wave of analyst price-target cuts and a notable downgrade by Piper Sandler on Feb. 3, which reduced its rating to Neutral and lowered its target to $20. Institutional filings show shifts in major holders: the New York State Common Retirement Fund disclosed a 56.2% reduction in its VERX stake in the latest 13F filing, while Brown Capital trimmed its position by 8.8% in the prior quarter; institutional investors still control about 70% of the stock. Vertex had earlier authorised a $150 million share repurchase program in November as a signal of management confidence. The company is due to report Q4 2025 results before the market opens on Feb. 11, 2026 — an event that could act as an immediate catalyst for further moves.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran resigned as chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers on Feb. 3-4, 2026, fulfilling a pledge he made to the Senate after his assignment at the Fed extended past Jan. 31. Miran, appointed by President Donald Trump in September 2025 to fill the unexpired term of Adriana Kugler, had been on unpaid leave from the CEA while serving on the Fed; although his term technically expired Jan. 31, he may remain until a successor is confirmed. The White House confirmed the resignation in a statement noting Miran’s prior service to the administration. Miran has dissented at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, pressing for substantially larger interest-rate cuts than the committee majority. The move comes as Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, a process complicated by a Justice Department probe into Powell’s statements about Fed building renovations and resulting Senate resistance, including a hold from Sen. Thom Tillis and bipartisan concerns on the Senate Banking Committee.

Rithm Capital Corp (NYSE:RITM) reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results in filings and call materials released Feb. 3-4, 2026. Q4 GAAP net income was $53.1 million ($0.09 per diluted share) and Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) were $418.9 million, or $0.74 per diluted common share, beating consensus (roughly $0.54‑0.58). Q4 revenue rose to $1.29 billion vs. $1.24 billion expected. Full-year GAAP net income was $567.2 million and EAD was about $1.28 billion ($2.35 per share). Rithm said assets under management surpassed $100 billion after acquisitions including Crestline and Paramount. Newrez and Genesis businesses drove origination and servicing growth (Genesis originations near $5 billion in 2025); Newrez posted strong pretax income and servicing UPB of about $852 billion. Book value per share was $12.66 and the company paid a quarterly common dividend of $0.25. Management noted mark‑to‑market volatility in mortgage servicing rights and flagged potential capital activity tied to the Paramount acquisition. Analysts maintained mostly positive ratings — Piper Sandler reiterated overweight while trimming its price target — amid notable insider selling and institutional position changes reported in recent SEC filings.

Tyler Technologies Inc. (NYSE: TYL) moved this week to shore up investor confidence as analysts and investors reacted to a string of corporate actions and research notes. On Feb. 4 the Plano, Texas‑based public‑sector software provider said its board approved a share repurchase program authorizing up to $1 billion of Class A stock, effective immediately. The announcement follows Tyler’s recent agreement to buy court‑recording firm For The Record (FTR) — a deal reported in filings and press coverage — which is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. Market reaction has been volatile: shares fell roughly 10–11% on Feb. 3 amid a wave of analyst commentary. Needham reaffirmed a buy rating with a $750 target, DA Davidson kept a neutral $510 target, and Wells Fargo on Feb. 4 cut its price target to $420 while maintaining an equal‑weight rating. Institutional flows showed activity from Goldman Sachs ETFs increasing positions, while insider filings reflect modest sales. Tyler’s market cap sits in the mid‑teens of billions, and management cited durable free cash flow in supporting the repurchase plan.

General Mills Inc (GIS) drew mixed market reactions in early February 2026 as institutional flows, options activity and dividend news converged ahead of key company events. On Feb. 4 the stock rose 4.2% to $48.46 on below-average volume after reports showed heightened bearish options positioning — about 13,948 put contracts traded and a put/call ratio of 1.83, with March 2026 $45 and Feb. 2026 $47.50 puts among the busiest. Several institutions adjusted stakes: TD Waterhouse Canada bought 10,327 shares (owning ~13,019), Revisor Wealth initiated ~11,197 shares, Mediolanum lifted holdings to ~34,786, while Zurcher Kantonalbank sold 16,939 shares and held ~285,747. General Mills reaffirmed a quarterly dividend of $0.61 ($2.44 annualized) yielding about 5.3% (record date April 10, 2026; payment May 1, 2026). Corporate updates include a Feb. 17 CAGNY webcast, a new independent director appointment and by-law changes. Key fundamentals cited: market cap near $25bn, P/E ~10, debt/equity ~1.47 and an Altman Z-score around 2.49; analysts’ average target ~$53.32. Upcoming earnings are set for March 18, 2026.

Target Corp appointed longtime executive Michael Fiddelke as CEO in early February as the retailer fights declining sales and investor scrutiny. Fiddelke, who had been COO, outlined priorities to sharpen merchandising, modernize stores and digital platforms, and accelerate a roughly $5 billion capital investment to revive growth. His arrival was met with protests at Target’s Minneapolis headquarters and at about two dozen stores, with demonstrators and community groups accusing the company of allowing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations on or near its properties and demanding a public stance and staff training. The American Federation of Teachers, which says members hold roughly 6.8 million Target shares via pension funds, urged the company to condemn ICE activity. Target has reported consecutive quarters of soft sales — recent third-quarter revenue of $25.3 billion was down 1.5% year-on-year — and a nearly 30% decline in its share price over three years. The protests have added reputational and operational pressure just as Fiddelke seeks to restore the chain’s merchandising identity and customer trust.

Zoom Video Communications saw mixed investor activity in early February 2026, with CEO Eric Yuan selling 12,100 shares on Feb. 2 at an average price of $93.01 for about $1.13 million, a transaction disclosed in an SEC filing. That followed earlier insider sales on Jan. 12 by senior executives including the CFO and a business unit head. At the same time, institutional buyers increased exposure: Allianz Asset Management reported a 49.4% increase in its stake in the third quarter, holding 1,827,189 shares (about $150.7 million at the time of the filing). Zoom shares dipped on Feb. 3 (about 3.15% intraday decline) and traded around $89–$91 in the subsequent session. Analysts remain broadly constructive — MarketBeat and others show a consensus “moderate buy” with average price targets in the mid-$90s — while institutional ownership sits near 66.5%. The company reported a Nov. 24 quarterly beat (revenue $1.23 billion, EPS $1.52) and has provided FY2026 EPS guidance in recent filings. Market indicators including 50- and 200-day moving averages and a market cap around $27 billion suggest the stock is being actively re-priced amid diverging insider and institutional signals.

United Airlines Holdings Inc President Brett Hart sold 19,000 shares of company stock on Feb. 2, 2026, according to an SEC filing and contemporaneous market reports. The shares were sold at an average price of $106.45, for a proceeds estimate of about $2.02 million. Post-transaction holdings are reported differently across outlets — MarketBeat cites 264,638 shares remaining, while GuruFocus reports 258,943 — reflecting a discrepancy in aggregated reporting. GuruFocus also notes Hart has sold a total of 43,772 shares over the past year and that there have been eight insider sells and no insider buys at United in the last 12 months. At the time of reporting the stock traded near $109.48 with a market capitalisation around $35.4 billion and a reported trailing P/E of roughly 10.7. The sale was disclosed in an SEC filing and comes amid broadly positive analyst coverage and company guidance for 2026 earnings.

Fractal Analytics, a Mumbai-based enterprise AI and analytics firm, set a price band of ₹857–900 per share for its initial public offering which opens for retail subscription on Feb. 9 and closes Feb. 11, with anchor bids on Feb. 6 and a tentative listing on Feb. 16. The ₹2,833.9 crore issue (about $314 million) comprises a fresh issue of up to ₹1,024 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to ₹1,810 crore by existing investors; the company cut the IPO size by over 40% from its earlier plan of ₹4,900 crore. The move values Fractal at roughly ₹14,450–15,473 crore (~$1.6–1.86 billion) depending on calculations. Unlisted shares have been trading in the grey market at a premium of around 10–11%, implying a potential listing above the band. Book-running lead managers are Kotak Mahindra, Morgan Stanley India, Axis Capital and Goldman Sachs (India). Proceeds will be used to repay debt at its U.S. subsidiary, fund R&D (including generative AI work on Fractal Alpha), expand offices and infrastructure, and support inorganic growth. The firm is backed by investors including TPG, Apax and Gaja and derives a majority of revenue from U.S. clients.

Voltas, India’s largest room air-conditioner maker, expects double-digit revenue growth in its room AC business in the upcoming April–June (summer) quarter, driven largely by first-time buyers, the company told Reuters. Company executive Jayant Balan said 85% of recent AC purchases are by first-time buyers and highlighted India’s low AC penetration—about 10% of households—compared with higher rates in China and Thailand. Voltas, with roughly an 18% market share, competes with Blue Star, Daikin and LG. Room-AC revenues had fallen 25% in April–June 2025 after an early monsoon and milder temperatures; total 2024-25 revenue was 154.13 billion rupees. The firm has raised prices following new energy-efficiency rules and faces higher input costs from rising copper and silver prices despite last year’s consumption tax cuts. Voltas plans to expand exports and develop models for overseas markets as European air-conditioner adoption grows. Management said it is not overly concerned about new low-cost entrants in the market.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was embroiled in heated exchanges with House Democrats at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Feb. 4-5, 2026, as lawmakers pressed him on the inflationary effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and on possible conflicts tied to the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial cryptocurrency firm. Ranking Member Rep. Maxine Waters repeatedly demanded committee intervention — at one point asking “Can someone shut him up?” — while Rep. Gregory Meeks accused Bessent of “covering for the president” and called him a “flunky.” Bessent pushed back, denying he had told investors that “tariffs are inflationary,” walked back earlier comments and cited research he said shows limited macroeconomic pass-through from tariffs. He also questioned Federal Reserve credibility, drawing sharp rebukes from Democrats. The hearing spotlighted tensions over trade policy, monetary independence and oversight of potential foreign investment in Trump-linked crypto assets. Bessent, who leads the Financial Stability Oversight Council, is due to testify before the Senate Banking Committee the following day.

India is in talks to link its Unified Payments Interface (UPI) with Alipay+, the global merchant network operated by Ant International, according to multiple reports in early February 2026. The proposed integration would let Indian travellers use UPI at more than 150 million Alipay+ merchants across 100+ markets, potentially extending UPI’s international reach without country-by-country infrastructure. Ant International, spun out of China’s Ant Group and now based in Singapore, did not comment. India’s UPI is already the world’s largest retail fast-payment system by volume, with over 504 million users, 65 million merchants and about 20 billion transactions a month, and the government reported a record ₹230 trillion in transaction value till December 2025. Officials say the linkage could lower transaction costs, reduce reliance on card networks and boost remittances and financial inclusion. But the plan faces regulatory scrutiny: data localisation, cross-border data flows, ‘kill-switch’ clauses and national security concerns tied to Alipay+’s Chinese origins must be resolved. The decision is pending reviews by India’s finance ministry, the Reserve Bank and payments authorities, and will require safeguards to satisfy geopolitical and privacy sensitivities.

Royal Dutch Shell reported a 22% drop in underlying earnings for 2025 to $18.53 billion and a quarterly adjusted profit of $3.26 billion for Q4 — its weakest quarter since early 2021. The group cited a 19% annual decline in crude prices, unfavourable tax adjustments and weakness in its chemicals business as key drivers. Despite the earnings shortfall and rising net debt, Shell announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.372 per share and started a $3.5 billion share buyback programme to be completed before its Q1 2026 results. Net debt rose to about $45.7 billion at year-end. The company said free cash flow remained robust at around $26 billion for 2025 and reiterated 2026 cash capex guidance of $20–22 billion. CEO Wael Sawan described 2025 as one of “accelerated momentum” with continued focus on portfolio streamlining and cost savings, while the group flagged expectations that oil prices will stabilise in a mid-$60s to $70s per barrel range.

On Feb. 5, 2026 the Bank of England is widely expected to keep its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% as the Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first decision of the year. December’s consumer prices index unexpectedly rose to 3.4%, complicating the case for an immediate follow-up cut after four reductions in 2025 (from 4% to 3.75%). Money markets price a majority chance of no change and analysts predict a split vote, with several MPC members likely to favour a hold. Policymakers are weighing cooling labour-market signals — slower wage growth and higher unemployment — against sticky inflation drivers such as transport and regulated charges. Analysts differ on timing of future cuts: some see reductions from March or April and further easing by summer, while others expect a more cautious pace. The decision occurs alongside data showing the UK construction sector remains in contraction (PMI below 50) and with the eurozone on a different path — ECB rates are at 2% and also expected to hold. The outcome will shape mortgage costs, savings rates, sterling and gilt markets and frame BoE forward guidance at the post-decision press conference.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Feb. 3 delivered its first cash rate rise in more than two years, increasing the target by 25 basis points to 3.85%, citing a material pick-up in inflation, stronger-than-expected private demand, tighter labour market conditions and supply constraints. Major lenders including Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, NAB and Westpac matched the move and said they would pass the full 25bp on to variable home loans from mid-February, with many other lenders following suit. The rise will add roughly A$90–$115 a month to repayments on an average mortgage, analysts say, and markets have priced a high probability of further increases by May. The decision sharpened political pressure on Treasurer Jim Chalmers to find budget savings and productivity reforms ahead of the May budget. Housing market responses are diverging: ANZ warned the boom may be over in about half the country as Sydney and Melbourne cool while Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to surge. The episode also produced reputational fallout for some banks after tone‑deaf customer communications and fuelled debate about the wider implications for global central banks and bond markets.

A wave of institutional trading in Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) was reported this week in SEC 13F filings and regulatory disclosures. ABN AMRO increased its holding by 222.7% to 117,713 shares, worth about $52.0 million, according to a Feb. 5 filing. By contrast, Zurcher Kantonalbank (Zurich Cantonalbank) fully exited a 182,816-share position. Smaller moves include TD Waterhouse Canada buying 799 shares to hold 15,437 (about $8.74 million), while Goldman Sachs’ ETFs trimmed positions (sales of 245 and 6,817 shares reported). The activity follows Intuitive’s Jan. 22 quarterly results—EPS $2.53 and revenue $2.87 billion—and comes as the stock trades in the $425–$609 52-week range with market capitalisation near $170–176 billion. Analysts remain broadly positive and institutional investors own the majority of the stock (about 83.6%).

Namma Metro fares in Bengaluru will rise by 5% from February 9, 2026, the Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation Limited (BMRCL) has said. The minimum single-journey fare increases from Rs 10 to Rs 11 and the maximum from Rs 90 to Rs 95 across all 10 fare zones; increases of Re 1 to Rs 5 will be applied depending on distance. The hike follows recommendations of the Fare Fixation Committee (FFC) and an automatic annual revision formula capped at 5% per year. BMRCL said audited costs rose 10.20% but the revision was limited to 5%. Existing discounts for smartcard and NCMC users (including 5% peak and 10% off-peak/Sunday/holiday discounts) will continue; tourist, group and day passes will also see proportional increases and fares will be rounded to the nearest rupee where applicable. The move comes a year after a contentious 2025 fare overhaul that initially proposed much larger increases. BMRCL cites heavy loan liabilities and looming repayments as reasons for the automatic, cost-linked adjustment mechanism.

Greater Bengaluru authorities have moved to auction about 7,000 properties that have defaulted on property tax and related charges, seeking to recover roughly Rs 437 crore. The five municipal corporations that make up the Greater Bengaluru Area scheduled zone-wise auctions for February 17, 2026, after multiple demand notices, attachment orders and recovery attempts failed. The defaulting properties are spread across all corporations — Bengaluru East identified 1,615 and Bengaluru West 1,504 — with corporation-wise arrears reportedly ranging between Rs 72 crore and Rs 119 crore. Officials say the outstanding amount includes base tax, cesses, user fees, penalties and interest, with penalties and interest constituting a large share of the total. The list of properties under proclamation has been published on the municipal property tax portal; owners can avoid auction if they clear dues, including penalties, before the sale. Sale proceeds will be used to recover municipal dues in accordance with law.

London motorists face above-inflation rises in the central congestion charge and the Blackwall and Silvertown tunnel tolls under Transport for London’s (TfL) new three-year business plan. The central C-charge was increased by 20% to £18 in January 2026 and the 100% exemption for battery electric vehicles was removed; electric vans and lorries now pay £9 a day and battery cars, including minicabs, pay £13.50. The Silvertown and Blackwall tunnels, opened with user charges in April 2025, cost £1.50 off-peak and £4 at peak per crossing. TfL finance chief Patrick Doig said the plan assumes annual increases from 2027 through 2030 at the rate of RPI plus 1 percentage point for both the congestion charge and tunnel tolls, with annual decisions announced each January and taking effect in March. The Ulez daily charge of £12.50 would not follow the same automatic rises. TfL expects around £320m a year from congestion levies and fines after January changes; tunnel takings are about £10m a month but much revenue is needed to service the Silvertown tunnel’s £2.2bn PFI cost. TfL passenger income remains below pre-pandemic forecasts.