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New research published in mid‑April 2026 warns that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is far more likely to weaken catastrophically than previously thought.
A Science Advances study led by Valentin Portmann used observational constraints and statistical methods (including ridge regression) to narrow model spread and found a projected AMOC slowdown of roughly 42–58% by 2100, a level the authors say makes collapse much more likely and raises the prospect of an irreversible tipping point as soon as mid‑century.
A separate paper in Communications Earth & Environment from Potsdam Institute researchers simulated the climate response to an AMOC shutdown and found the Southern Ocean could flip from a carbon sink to a source, adding about 0.17–0.27°C to global warming.
Scientists including Stefan Rahmstorf say the most pessimistic models now align best with observations.
Expected impacts of a major AMOC weakening include dramatic regional cooling in northern Europe, shifts in tropical rainfall belts, elevated Atlantic sea levels (estimates of 50–100cm locally), stronger storms and risks to food and coastal security.
Authors note key uncertainties remain (natural variability and incomplete representation of Greenland meltwater), but conclude the risk has increased substantially.







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