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New data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show widening spending divergence in the United States that reinforces a “K‑shaped” recovery.
The Fed’s economic heterogeneity indicators, using monthly retail‑goods data from analytics firm Numerator covering 200,000 consumers from January 2023 through December 2025, found inflation‑adjusted retail spending rose about 6% for households with a college degree versus roughly 4% for those without.
Higher‑income households (annual income above $125,000) increased spending by about 2.3% since 2023, while middle‑income households rose 1.6% and those under $40,000 rose 0.9%. The report also notes that lower‑income and rural households faced higher inflation in late 2025.
College‑educated households continued to boost consumption through 2025 despite a softer white‑collar labor market and job cuts in tech and other sectors.
The findings underline that consumption — a primary engine of U.S. growth — is increasingly concentrated among wealthier and more educated Americans, while lower‑income groups lag behind.


















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