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A University of Alabama-led study published April 23, 2026 in Science Advances finds that tens of millions of Americans along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts face elevated flood risk.
Using 16 factors — including geographic hazards, exposed population and infrastructure, land subsidence, impermeable surfaces and social vulnerability — and combining FEMA damage records with three AI tools, researchers estimated 17.5 million people at "very high" risk and roughly another 17 million at "high" risk (about 34.5 million total). For the most extreme floods (top 1% of events) the study finds 4.3 million at the highest risk and 20.5 million at high risk.
Major metro areas singled out include New York City (about 4.75 million people in the two highest risk tiers and some 200,000 buildings likely exposed), New Orleans (about 380,000 people, representing 99% of the city), Jacksonville, Houston, Miami, Norfolk, Charleston and Mobile.
Authors and outside experts say human-caused climate change, combined with urban development and social vulnerability, is intensifying coastal flood threats and complicating preparedness and planning.







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